Memorial Tournament Presented by Workday

The Memorial Tournament

After the highs of Davis Riley’s win for us at  Colonial it was a pretty ho-hum week for us at the RBC Canadian Open as none of our team ever really threatened to get in to the conversation. With three of the five making the cut our best performer was Tyler Duncan who briefly threatened to get in to the place conversation after an eagle birdie salvo on his front nine on Sunday. After that though he was unable to push on and a week that never really got going for us was over.

The tournament itself was won by Robert McIntyre who with his father flying out to caddy for him at short notice produced a fairytale victory. It was one of those weeks where the win was perhaps just written in the stars for the Scot, something that was particularly underlined on Saturday as despite seemingly struggling under the pressure with his long game he produced a magical short game display to somehow shoot 66.

In the end then it was a superb win for the Ryder Cup star and one that will go down as one of the ‘feel good’ highlights of 2024 on the PGA Tour.

So onwards we go and it’s time for the annual trip to ‘Jack’s place’ Muirfield Village, for the for the Memorial Tournament.

The Memorial event was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus and is played on the Nicklaus designed course at the Muirfield Village Golf Club.

As I am sure we all know by now the event is one of those on tour to have Signature Event status. The field of 72 players will be made up of the eligible top 50 from last year, the ‘next ten’, the swing five’ and a handful of sponsors exemptions.

Even with the event proceeding the US Open the Signature Status guarantees us a stellar line up. Scottie Scheffler of course takes favouritism, with the world number one followed in the market by the new world number two and latest Major Champion Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both at sigle figure odds. This trio are then followed by Collin Morikawa and defending champion Viktor Hovland.

COURSE

Muirfield Village is a Par 72 measuring at just over 7450 yards.

The greens are Bent Grass.

Muirfield Village is seen as a classical test. Approach play is key as it is imperative to find the correct part of the undulating greens, which can, as long as the weather cooperates, run up to 13 on the stimpmeter.

With a bit more room off the tee compared to some courses, Muirfield Village is basically a second shot and in course.

Although plenty of birdies are available particularly on the par 5s there is also a lot of danger lurking with water in play on more than half of the holes, and historically thick rough around the greens.

The closing stretch of the course 16 through 18 is the toughest.

The Par 5s is where you make your score at Muirfield Village with all four Par 5s playing under Par year in year out.

I would therefore see Par 5 scoring as a key stat to look at.

Away from the four par fives and the most exciting hole on the course is arguably the par 4 14^th, which is driveable most days.

After the 2020 edition the course underwent significant renovation with the aim according to Jack Nicklaus to make the course “better, not necessarily harder”.

Most holes had the greens completely recontoured with bunker modifications and the only holes where the greens now resemble the old greens are 12, 13, 14 & 17.

Based on these changes there was a fair amount of speculation as to whether past course form would count for as much however with Rahm and Cantlay dominating Again in 2021 it appeared to be very much ‘business as usual’.+

Away from Muirfield Village I would also suggest that form on other Nicklaus courses is worth taking in to consideration and one fact that stands out is that in addition to 2021 champion Jon Rahm, 2017 winner Jason Dufner is a past winner at the CareerBuilder which uses a Nicklaus course. Similarly David Lingmerth who won here in 2015 has also come close at the CareerBuilder [when losing to Dufner in a playoff].

Meanwhile 2022 champion Billy Horschel was runner up at the Nicklaus designed Concession Club, which hosted a one off Tour event in 2021,

Other Nicklaus courses to consider are PGA National home of the Honda Classic, Glen Abbey the former home of the Canadian Open and Valhalla used just recently for the PGA Championship.

HISTORY

So lets take a look at the winners since 2012;

2023 – Viktor Hovland

2022 – Billy Horschel

2021 – Patrick Cantlay

2020 – Jon Rahm

2019 – Patrick Cantlay

2018 – Bryson Dechambeau

2017 Jason Dufner

2016 William McGirt

2015 David Lingmerth

2014 Hideki Matsuyama

2013 Matt Kuchar

2012 Tiger Woods

As we can see from this list it’s been a fairly mixed bag of winners here over the years and we have seen three players Matsuyama, Lingmerth and McGirt gain there first PGA Tour wins here, with McGirt and Lingmerth’s successes in particular coming from left field.

Over recent years however the event has very much been the domain of the big names with Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm posting three wins between them over the past five years, while last year, the player of the year Viktor Hovland triumphed here.

Let’s not also forget of course that the balance between Rahm and Cantlay almost certainly would have been two to one in Rahm’s favour had he not been forced to withdraw from the event on Saturday evening in 2021 after a positive Covid test when he held a six shot lead through 54 holes.

Whilst past course form is never a minus it does not appear to be a requisite here. In fact six of the nine winners since 2014, Rahm, Dechambeau, Dufner, McGirt, Lingmerth and Matsuyama had a best place finish of 19^th between them in eleven previous starts. [Hideki was making his course debut.] So don’t be put off if the man you have a hunch for has not done much here before.

Current form coming in is a bit more interesting and I have provided a table below to show this;

2023 – Viktor Hovland 16 2 43 59 7

2022 – Billy Horschel MC 68 21 43 9

2021 – Patrick Cantlay 23 MC MC 18 MC

2020 – Jon Rahm 27 33 37 MC 3*

2019 – Patrick Cantlay 3 3 9 24 MC

2018 – Bryson Dechambeau   42 37 4 3 38

2017 Jason Dufner   MC 13 60 5 11

2016 William McGirt   47 43 17 37 9

2015 David Lingmerth   MC 33 MC MC MC

2014 Hideki Matsuyama  10 23 38 MC MC

2013 Matt Kuchar   2 33 48 35 8

2012 Tiger Woods  40 MC 40 1 WD

*Denotes finish pre ‘lockdown’ 2020.

As we can see from this all but two of the last 12 winners, Lingmerth and Cantlay in 2021, had posted a top ten finish in their previous five starts on tour [although Rahm’s top 10 did come prior to the Tour’s break for covid 19]. Let’s also not forget that Rahm was in fine form in 2021 before his WD, having finished eighth at the PGA in his previous start, so It would seem therefore that current form is a better way in here than course form.

One other angle I feel merits consideration is par 5 scoring and it’s correlation to similar style tracks like Bay Hill where taking advantage of the par 5s is key. Longer term readers may remember that this was a large part of the case I built for Bryson in 2018 when putting him up as he had finished second at Bay Hill [also fourth at Quail Hollow, which rewards par 5 performance], and he lead the tour coming in to the week in 2018 in par 5 scoring.

Furthermore anyone who had followed the Bay Hill connection in 2022 may well have plumped for the winner Billy Horschel as he had been runner up at the API earlier in the year, while last year’s winner here Hovland had finished 10^th at Bay Hill in March, a result, which would have been much better as well bar a poor final day.

Finally as always the winning score is influenced by the elements with the lowest winning total in the last ten years coming from Patrick Cantlay in 2019 who posted -19, however in 2020 Rahm triumphed with a -9 total, while Hovland last year won with a 7- under total..

2021 saw Cantlay triumph in a play off with a -13 total although we mustn’t forget he Rahm was six clear prior to having to WD while last year Horschel posted a four shot win again with a –13 number.

For five years prior to Cantlay’s win though we saw three winning scores of -15 and two of -13 [-15 was the score required to make the play off in 2018., while Cantlay triumphed again with -13 in 2020.

It is also worth noting that one winner in the past ten years, Cantlay in 2019, has managed to post all four rounds in the 60s on route to victory

WEATHER FORECAST

After some potential disruption early in the week touch wood at the time of writing we look set for four uninterrupted dry days for the event. As we know though from experience storms can often pop up here at this time of year so this is certainly not cast in stone.

Temperatures look set to sit around the mid-70s for the week.

Wind, which can be a factor here looks like it could be an issue this week for the players  with gusts of 20mph+ showing in the forecast across all four days.

As I always say though this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

MAX HOMA – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 22nd

While my suspicion is that Xander Schauffele may struggle to find the heights of his Valhalla win in his first start since,  there are two names at the top of the market this week it is hard to get away from in the shape of Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Of the two McIlroy made the more appeal as he has a strong record the week before a Major.  Ultimately though with the quality on display this week I was reluctant to get involved at short single figure odds and I have decided to hunt for each way value elsewhere starting with Max Homa.

It's been a slightly underwhelming year from Max to date compared to the high standards he has set himself over recent years, with the main disappointment being he failed to seriously challenge for one of the titles over on the West Coast, where he normally makes hay.

Despite this though he has produced a steady campaign posting three top tens and missing only two cuts.

Pertinently to this week what has caught my eye is that those three top tens this year have come at Quail Hollow, Augusta and most significantly Bay Hill and that immediately puts him on my short list. In addition the eighth place finish at Quail Hollow gives us the recent top ten we are looking for.

Meanwhile if we then look at Max’s record at Muirfield Village we see that he has finished fifth and sixth in his last two starts here, with the sixth place particularly interesting as it came in the middle of a run of four missed cuts, showing us that the track is one he can thrive on even if not in great form on arrival. From that point of view then I am not going to get overly hung up on the blot on his copy book last time out at Colonial where one bad day on Thursday put pay to his week.

With six wins now on the PGA Tour and of course with one at the Nedbank, Homa has shown us over recent years that he is someone you can trust in the heat of the battle to get the job done. Furthermore with those wins coming at the likes of Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines and Riviera, Muirfield Village would look a perfect fit alongside these.

In a week then where you could easily make a case for most of the big names near the head of the market I’ll happily side with Max here at good each way odds.

WYNDHAM CLARK – 35/1 – 1.5pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED MC

Next up is another player who looks a perfect fit to me for Muirfield Village, Wyndham Clark.

Clark will head to Pinehurst next week to defend his US Open title and there is of course a slight risk that he has one eye on that upcoming challenge and not on this week, equally though he strikes me as the type of character who after a couple of poor performances of late will have had a reset and will come in to this fortnight prepared and ready to go.

Following on from the above it is also worth saying that Wyndham has clearly shown us that he is they type of player who can bounce back after a poor few weeks with a big performance if the track is right, something he has done this year with his runner up finish at Bay Hill when we were on board and again at Hilton Head.

Talking of Bay Hill and of course I have highlighted the link between that track and this and the reasons that had me side with Wyndham at the API are very much in play this week. Long off the tee he thrives on the par fives currently sitting 15^th on tour in par five scoring averages while he thrives on tough ‘big boy’ layout courses.

With three wins to his name in just over twelve months, two of which have come in Signature Events to go with his US Open title, Wyndham looks an ideal type to me for Muirfield Village and I expect him to build on his best effort to date here of 12^th last year and put in another big performance.

SUNGJAE IM – 40/1 – 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED T8th

In a week when recent strong form is often key the next player I am keen to side with is Sungjae Im.

This time last year Im was somewhat being lambasted for heading out to Korea to bag a title just before the PGA Championship and while it was no doubt to honour a sponsors commitment it certainly did seem to derail his 2023 campaign as he failed to post another top ten until the Fedex St Jude in August.

This year however having started 2024 poorly he returned to Korea once more to defend that title and that performance seems this time around to  have had the opposite effect and galvanised his 2024 campaign.

Sungjae showed the first signs of his recent upturn in form at Hilton Head with a 12^th place finish and he then backed that up with a fourth place at the correlating Quail Hollow. Granted a MC then came at the PGA Championship however he than bounced back with a ninth last time out at Colonial so clearly his confidence is rising.

With two third place finishes at Bay Hill to his name to go with a strong record at Augusta Sungjae has plenty of form at the right places to link well here so while his record at Memorial is fairly ho-hum I am confident this is a track that sets up well for him. Lets not forget as well that Sungjae’s maiden tour title came on another Nicklaus layout at PGA National.

With Sungjae’s form having been patchy this year he is something of a forgotten man of late, however his odds reflect that somewhat and I am more than happy to chance him to continue to build on his recent upturn.

SHANE LOWRY – 50 /1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 49th

Next up this week I am going to return to the well with a player we were on last week, Shane Lowry.

I sided with Lowry last week based on his good performance the previous time the Canadian Open had visited Hamilton CC, coupled with his overall strong record on Harry Colt courses, and allowing for this there is no denying it was a disappointing week for him as he plodded around in the middle of the pack.

So why jump straight back on board this week in a field, which is clearly much stronger?

Well firstly we have Lowry’s eye catching record on Nicklaus layouts, one which has seen him regularly contend at PGA National over the years and as recently as three weeks ago saw him finish sixth at the PGA Championship at the Nicklaus designed Valhalla.

In addition we can take encouragement from the fact that he was sixth here in 2021, a result, which came off the back of a similarly strong week at the PGA Championship.

Looking at the Irishman’s 2024 campaign and although of course he has the win in the Zurich Pairs event it is clear the club that has held him back from getting over the line in a solo event has been the putter. This can be clearly seen in that he ranks 11^th in approach play but 125^th with the flat stick. As we know though all strong ball strikers are one good putting week away from seriously contending and we can take confidence that he caught fire with the putter on Nicklaus greens at Valhalla.

Despite his woes on the dance floor it has still been a really consistent season to date for Shane with four solo top tens to his name. In addition it is encouraging that his best solo effort to date this year was third place at Bay Hill, as we know that is a great pointer for this week.

Lowry’s big US breakthrough came in Ohio at Firestone so this should certainly be a part of the US he enjoys returning to and as someone who tends to save his best for big events I am happy to stick with him at attractive each way odds.

LEE HODGES – 125/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1^st 8 - FINISHED 45th

Finally in a week where it is certainly possible that some of the bigger names will have one eye on next weeks US Open, I can’t ignore the credentials of Lee Hodges.

In his short time on tour Hodges has caught the eye as being someone who certainly enjoys the challenge of a Jack Nicklaus layout.

This first reared its head in 2021 when Lee finished 11^th at the Barracuda on a Nicklaus layout before early in 2022 he finished third at the Amex, which includes the Nicklaus Tournament Course in its rotation. He then followed this with a ninth place at PGA National not long after.

Roll on in to 2023 Lee finished 14^th in his second start at PGA National while he then notched a 12^th here on his debut at Muirfield Village. Finally this year Lee popped up just recently with a 12^th place at Valhalla, another Nicklaus layout.

Looking more at Lee’s 2024 form and after a sluggish start to the year he seems to have found some momentum of late as he followed a 24^th place at the Wells Fargo with the aforementioned 12^th at the PGA and another 12^th at the Charles Schwab. Furthermore a look at Lee’s numbers for the week at Colonial show us that he ranked sixth in approach play, something, which certainly bodes well for this week. Indeed his season to date Approach Play ranking of 39^th gives us a clue as to why he enjoys Nicklaus layouts.

Finally with regards to this years form prior to his back to back 12^th places recently his best finish this year was a 12^th at the correlating Bay Hill.

A one time winner on tour at last years 3M Open, Hodges has been making steady strides year on year since joining the tour and coming in under the radar this week he could just provide a shock at big odds.